Adversarial negative controls — attractive nonsense
A trustworthy discovery system must not rank historically-plausible-but-false theories highly. These seven are canonical dead ends whose narratives fit their prior evidence well: cold fusion, phlogiston, N-rays, the luminiferous aether, caloric, Lamarckian inheritance, and miasma theory. We want their rediscovery match to be low. A medium score should be explainable by grounded evidence and honest uncertainty — not by mere narrative plausibility.
Caloric: heat as a conserved self-repellent fluid (a known dead end)
0.50
rediscovery match (lower = better)
composite0.97
grounding1.00
testability1.00
novelty0.91
Evidence provenance (12 items)
fully grounded: 1.00
partial: 0.00
unsupported: 0.00
hallucinated ids: 0
why the score: a false theory can still be falsifiable (3/3 were) and even partly grounded in real prior work — but the reconstruction should NOT match the (false) ground-truth claim, and the composite is capped by whatever it cannot ground.
Room-temperature nuclear fusion in palladium electrodes (a known dead end)
0.00
rediscovery match (lower = better)
composite0.90
grounding0.83
testability1.00
novelty0.89
Evidence provenance (10 items)
fully grounded: 0.80
partial: 0.00
unsupported: 0.20
hallucinated ids: 0
why the score: a false theory can still be falsifiable (3/3 were) and even partly grounded in real prior work — but the reconstruction should NOT match the (false) ground-truth claim, and the composite is capped by whatever it cannot ground.
Inheritance of acquired characteristics (Lamarckism) as the mechanism of evolution (a known dead end)
1.00
rediscovery match (lower = better)
composite0.98
grounding1.00
testability1.00
novelty0.95
Evidence provenance (15 items)
fully grounded: 1.00
partial: 0.00
unsupported: 0.00
hallucinated ids: 0
why the score: a false theory can still be falsifiable (3/3 were) and even partly grounded in real prior work — but the reconstruction should NOT match the (false) ground-truth claim, and the composite is capped by whatever it cannot ground.
The luminiferous aether as the medium for light propagation (a known dead end)
0.00
rediscovery match (lower = better)
composite0.95
grounding0.93
testability1.00
novelty0.91
Evidence provenance (12 items)
fully grounded: 0.92
partial: 0.00
unsupported: 0.08
hallucinated ids: 0
why the score: a false theory can still be falsifiable (3/3 were) and even partly grounded in real prior work — but the reconstruction should NOT match the (false) ground-truth claim, and the composite is capped by whatever it cannot ground.
Miasma: disease caused by bad air from decaying matter (a known dead end)
0.30
rediscovery match (lower = better)
composite0.98
grounding1.00
testability1.00
novelty0.94
Evidence provenance (9 items)
fully grounded: 1.00
partial: 0.00
unsupported: 0.00
hallucinated ids: 0
why the score: a false theory can still be falsifiable (3/3 were) and even partly grounded in real prior work — but the reconstruction should NOT match the (false) ground-truth claim, and the composite is capped by whatever it cannot ground.
N-rays: a novel radiation emitted by most materials (a known dead end)
0.00
rediscovery match (lower = better)
composite0.98
grounding1.00
testability1.00
novelty0.93
Evidence provenance (11 items)
fully grounded: 1.00
partial: 0.00
unsupported: 0.00
hallucinated ids: 0
why the score: a false theory can still be falsifiable (3/3 were) and even partly grounded in real prior work — but the reconstruction should NOT match the (false) ground-truth claim, and the composite is capped by whatever it cannot ground.
Phlogiston as the substance released during combustion (a known dead end)
0.00
rediscovery match (lower = better)
composite0.97
grounding1.00
testability1.00
novelty0.90
Evidence provenance (11 items)
fully grounded: 1.00
partial: 0.00
unsupported: 0.00
hallucinated ids: 0
why the score: a false theory can still be falsifiable (3/3 were) and even partly grounded in real prior work — but the reconstruction should NOT match the (false) ground-truth claim, and the composite is capped by whatever it cannot ground.